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Fed-Stance Meter

Public source official public series

Fed-Stance Meter — Statement Hawk/Dove Tape — educational scoring of published FOMC statement text. Describes what the Committee said; not a forecast of what it will do.

-5 dovish … 0 neutral … +5 hawkish (scored from FOMC statement text)

Transparent weighted-lexicon scoring of the actual statement text; each score lists the hawkish/dovish phrases that drove it. Deterministic and reproducible.

Embedded snapshot: 2026-09-11T09:00:02+00:00

Latest statement score

3.77

As-of 2026-07-29 · n=4 statements in window · trend_last3=1.45

Statement tape

2026-03-18
-1.90 · leaning dovish

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Hawk weight 1.20 · Dove weight 4.50

strongly committed ×1lower the target ×1preferred to (lower|cut) ×1
2026-04-29
-2.48 · dovish

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Hawk weight 1.20 · Dove weight 6.50

strongly committed ×1lower the target ×1easing ×1preferred to (lower|cut) ×1
2026-06-17
3.05 · hawkish

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Hawk weight 4.70 · Dove weight 0.00

inflation remains elevated ×1deliver price stability ×1remains elevated ×1
2026-07-29
3.77 · hawkish

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Hawk weight 9.20 · Dove weight 0.00

raise the target ×1inflation remains elevated ×1deliver price stability ×1preferred to raise ×1remains elevated ×1

What this is (and is not)

Scores are a transparent weighted-lexicon read of the official statement language (hawkish vs dovish phrases). They are an educational pattern study of public text — identical for every visitor — not advice and not a path of future rates.

Fed-funds futures path is not shown on this page.

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Education and information only — not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a forecast of Federal Reserve policy. This scores what the Committee SAID in its published statements, not what it will do. Data from federalreserve.gov, provided 'as is' without warranty.